CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T18:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36088/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen as a faint leading edge without much overflowing material behind the leading edge, seen to the south and southeast in SOHO LASCO and east-southeast in STEREO A COR2. Likely associated with an eruption from AR3939 near S18E15 seen as quickly breaking field lines near the active region seen best in GOES SUVI 131, 195, 284, 304. The attached WSA-Enlil+Cone simulation should not be interpreted as a forecast and is likely to overestimate geomagnetic impacts at Earth given that the measurement represents the faint shock associated with the CME, which does not contain much observed material behind the leading edge.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-02T10:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-01T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1256 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:12 UTC December 29 has been further analysed, It is likely associated with the M2 flare (SIDC flare 3113) at 04:30 UTC December 29 from SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939). An eruption and dimming can be seen in the south-east of the solar disk seen in SUVI 305 images around 05:00 UTC. This CME is deemed to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival time of late on December 31. A second faint partial halo CME directed to the east was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 18:12 UTC on December 29, associated with a on disk dimming and eruption visible in the south-east quadrant also near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) in SUVI 94 and 305 imagery around 16:40 UTC. Although faint and difficult to estimate the speed this CME, it is also determined to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival on January 01. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 68.97 hour(s)
Difference: 24.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-30T13:07Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy